As I told you last week, I hate picking Week 1 NFL games.
But, surprisingly, I had a decent week.
I went 8-6-2 against the spread and 10-6 straight up for a decent start to the 2024 NFL season. The unpredictability of the first week is the challenge. The next part is trying to figure out how much of Week 1 is real.
Let’s hope I did a decent job of finding the fakes here as I look to keep my head above .500 after two weeks.
Week 1 wasn’t so bad.
Let’s hope Week 2 is even better.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Josh Allen has owned the Miami Dolphins in his career with an 11-2 record. That won’t change in this one. It’s always tough on the Bills playing in the heat, but this is a night game. Sure, it’s on a short week, but the Bills will do enough on defense and Allen will win it late. He continues his mastery over the Dolphins.
Pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 24
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This a second straight road game for the Raiders against a team playing its home opener with rest — and it’s on the East Coast. That’s a brutal trip for the Raiders. Their offense struggled against the Chargers and it will here. The Ravens won’t struggle. Lamar Jackson has a nice game.
Pick: Ravens 28, Raiders 16
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a long trip for the Chargers in the early time zone, but the Panthers are bad. They were awful in their opener and now will be without defensive tackle Derrick Brown, their best defensive player. The offense is really bad. Look for the Chargers to win both lines of scrimmage as they get a road victory.
Pick: Chargers 26, Panthers 9
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This game features teams coming off two of the better showings this past week. The Cowboys will be playing their home opener after beating the Browns, while the Saints are on the road for the first time. The Dallas defense was suffocating against the Browns and I think that carries over against the Saints. Cowboys go to 2-0, but it’s tight.
Pick: Cowboys 23, Saints 18
Which picks can you make with confidence, and which four A-rated against-the-spread picks should you lock in now?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a rematch of the playoff game from last season won by the Lions. The Bucs played it close in that game, but this is a tough task with a banged-up secondary. Even so, look for Baker Mayfield to again keep them in it. The Lions will win a close one.
Pick: Lions 30, Bucs 27
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This will be Malik Willis for the Packers with Jordan Love out. That’s a real challenge for Matt LaFleur and the coaching staff. The Colts hit some big plays on offense against the Texans, but gave up a bunch. The Packers will rally around their new quarterback, but it won’t be enough. Colts get a road victory.
Pick: Colts 23, Packers 20
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars blew a fourth-quarter lead in losing to the Dolphins, while Cleveland was mauled at home by Dallas. Deshaun Watson was awful. This is a tough ask to bounce back on the road against a Jaguars defense that slowed Miami. Look for Jacksonville to get in the win column.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Browns 19
San Francisco 49ers (-6) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Both of these teams impressed in their Week 1 victories. The 49ers pushed around a good Jets defense without Christian McCaffrey. This Minnesota defense impressed against New York and I think they will play well here. This is close. Real close, but give it to the Vikings in an upset.
Pick: Vikings 22, 49ers 21
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a long first road trip for the Seahawks, facing a team that upset the Bengals last week. The Patriots defense was good in that game and Seattle has offensive line problems. I think that shows up as the Pats win a low-scoring game behind their defense.
Pick: Pats 20, Seahawks 16
New York Jets (-4) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
These two looked bad in opening-week losses. The Jets defense had major issues, while the Titans offense looked bad. Will Levis has to be better. The Titans defense was outstanding last week. That defense will keep them in this one and Levis will win it with a late drive.
Pick: Titans 23, Jets 20
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
These two are both coming off losses, bad ones too. The Giants looked to be the worst of the two teams, and now they are out on the road. The Commanders will get some big plays from Jayden Daniels, but the Giants will regroup here to win it.
Pick: Giants 21, Commanders 19
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Cardinals blew a big lead at Buffalo last week and now must face a division rival in the home opener. The Rams are playing consecutive road games, which is always tough. They are also banged up on the offensive line. But the Rams have owned the Cardinals, winning 13 of the last 15. Not this time.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Rams 21
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers are playing consecutive road games as their their defense won last week’s against the Falcons. That defense travels and will make life tough on Bo Nix, who struggled in the opener. This will be a low-scoring game with Justin Fields at quarterback for the Steelers. It’s close but Pittsburgh takes it.
Pick: Steelers 17, Broncos 16
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals were bad in their opening-day loss to the Patriots, but they have always played well against the Chiefs with Joe Burrow. The offense doesn’t have the firepower right now to compete with the Chiefs. Look for Patrick Mahomes to have fun with his speedy new receivers as the Chiefs get to 2-0.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Bengals 20
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
This will be the first road game for Caleb Williams after a bad first start in a victory over Titans. He has to be better. The Texans impressed in winning on the road, but they gave up some big plays to the Colts. The Bears defense will slow down CJ. Stroud, but turnovers will give the Texans the victory.
Pick: Texans 23, Bears 13
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
The Eagles will have extra rest here after playing last Friday when they beat Green Bay. The Falcons were lifeless on offense against the Steelers, while the Eagles moved it at will against the Packers. That will continue here. Kirk Cousins will be better than a week ago, but not quite what the Falcons need to win it.
Pick: Eagles 27, Falcons 24
