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The NFL offers an exciting Sunday slate in Week 2 with plenty of player prop value.
Here are some of my favorite player props for Sunday’s games.
(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_sports_).
Best bets: Week 2 NFL player props Derrick Henry under 1.5 receptions (-145, DraftKings)
I cashed on this prop in Week 1, and I’m not sure why we’re getting the same number again, but I’ll run it back here.
Derrick Henry is taking over the Gus Edwards role in the Ravens’ offense, and Edwards had over 1.5 receptions in just three of 19 games last season (16 percent).
In Week 1, Justice Hill was the pass-catching/third-down back for Baltimore, running 26 routes compared to Henry’s eight and seeing eight targets compared to Henry’s two.
Hill out-snapped Henry in the game overall and he looked great doing so. T
hat role isn’t entirely going away after John Harbaugh said, “We didn’t bring Derrick in here to be the guy that gets the ball 30 times a game.”The Ravens are eight-point favorites this week, and I expect Henry to get more snaps with a much better game script.
However, that game script will also lead to lower passing volume overall for the offense. I’ll keep betting on this Henry prop while it’s priced at 1.5 receptions.
Rachaad White under 47.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
In Week 1, White saw essentially as perfect a situation as he’ll have all year. The Bucs were facing a Washington run defense that ranked below average against the run last year and were leading by multiple scores the entire game, creating a perfect rushing game script.
He ran for 31 yards on 15 carries, an ugly 2.1 YPC average.
Now, he hits the road for a game against the Lions, where the Bucs are lined as 7.5-point underdogs in an expected negative game script.
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Tampa Bay’s offensive line ranked dead last in adjusted line yards in Week 1, while Detroit ranked 10th on defense and now adds D.J. Reader, who has been one of the league’s best run defenders for years.
White could also lose work to Bucky Irving, who led all qualified running backs in explosive rush rate last week, while White ranked 31st in that same sample.
White went under this number in six of the Bucs’ nine losses last year (66%).
Brock Purdy over 232.5 passing yards (-110, bet365)
The Vikings came away from Week 1 ranked first in pass defense EPA and third in DVOA, but they took advantage of a horrific outing from Daniel Jones, and I expect them to come back down to Earth here.
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores employs a blitz-heavy scheme, but that won’t work against Brock Purdy, who led the NFL with 9.72 yards per attempt (YPA) against the blitz last year.
Minnesota also ran Cover 2 at the highest rate last season, and Purdy led the NFL in fantasy points per dropback against that coverage, according to Fantasy Points Data. He finished with a 9.1 YPA against the Vikings last year despite being without Deebo Samuel, the team’s go-to target against the blitz and zone coverage.
Purdy exceeded this passing yardage number in 14 of 19 games (73 percent) last season, and we’re getting a significant discount here.
Alternate lines should be in play, especially if Sam Darnold’s Week 1 isn’t a mirage and the Vikings can put up some points on their end.
Rashid Shaheed longest reception over 18.5 yards (-110, BetMGM)
I was super encouraged by Shaheed’s usage in Week 1 in the new Klint Kubiak offense.
He had a full-time role as the WR2 with a 68 percent snap share and 65.4 percent route run rate — both would have been even higher if it wasn’t a complete blowout.
He’s hit the over on this prop in 11 of his last 18 games with 50+ percent of snaps and 2+ targets and seven of his last ten games with 60+ percent of snaps and 3+ targets.
